Jake Long Doesn't Want to Play in Miami?

...Chris, I'm starting to feel the same hunch you've got.

And it sickens me.

All the trademark signs are there from the usual suspects... the Chiefs website, Peter King mention about CP in MMQB, hints and suggestions from the PR wing of the KC Star... it's all pointing to Matt Ryan- the best of the worst QB class in a long long time.

A very good friend and diehard 49'er fan emailed me this week and suggested that if we do draft Matty, he'd welcome me into the "Weak-armed, muffin stumps for hands, QB club" with his fellow 49'er fans and the few remaining Pennington fans out there.

MV

...he may very well drop to the Chiefs.  You've got six guys with elite talent and potential (Chris Long, Jake Long, Sedrick Ellis, Glenn Dorsey, Darren McFadden, and probably Vernon Gholston) for five spots.  Each of those six players fit needs for multiple teams without the team needing to reach.  If Miami doesn't take Jake Long they could also use Chris Long, Gholston or one of the DTs.  St. Louis already has a ton of money tied up in two OTs (and they can't trade or cut Pace without taking a huge salary cap hit, nor do they really want to overpay someone to play guard) so they're just as likely (probably more so) to pick a defensive lineman (C. Long, Dorsey, or Ellis).  Atlanta needs a defensive tackle and a QB as much or more than a tackle (and Mike Smith is a defensive guy).  The Raiders are apparently obsessed with McFadden (even though he's not a need) but have huge gaps all along the defensive line with Sapp's retirement (making Ellis a very likely pick if he's still there) and they'll definitely snag Chris Long if he's available because he's both a need and a legacy (and Al loves his Raiders history).  

So if Long doesn't get snapped up by Miami, it's far from a certainty someone else will grab him before us.  That's why the gloom-and-doom scenarios are premature.  In any case, assuming Peterson doesn't reach with the pick we'll get somebody who can help us out, whether that's Jake Long or not.

...there's no way.  Peterson knows his ass is on the line this season and that he needs to show he's building a solid foundation, Ryan's too much of a gamble for a top five pick even in the best of circumstances, and we've got too many holes everywhere else (particularly on o-line) for him to save the franchise by himself.  Croyle would likely begin the season as starter anyway, so Ryan would either sit on the bench while he's learning the offense or he'd get thrown to the wolves and killed behind that line and end up like Tim Couch.

I don't think much of Peterson's skills as GM, but even he's not stupid enough to take that gamble.

"I can see him thinking that by grabbing the best QB in the draft and giving him time to develop into a top notch starter will cement his own legacy as having made a great move despite still getting canned."

How is he going to develop behind the worst offensive line in football with a coaching staff that hasn't shown they can develop a young NFL QB and that may very well be gone in two years along with Peterson?  Not to mention that this guy would be as much of a reach at pick #5 as the top QB in any draft class has ever been, so there's no guarantee he'll develop into even a good starter, much less a great one.  If Peterson drafts Ryan with the #5 pick, Clark Hunt should fire him immediately after the draft (or better yet, during the draft immediately after the pick) because it's clear sign that he's completely lost his mind...especially in a draft where we've got four linemen who would merit that pick and some others who would be less of a reach than Ryan.

I just don't see Peterson getting that stupid over his legacy.

I know most of us are not fans of Ryan, but I am going to leave the decision making up to the talent scouts and coaching staff.  Perhaps they see something we don't.  Many experts last year were calling Bowe a reach, and I think it's quite clear that he should have been the first WR picked.  In fact, you could argue that if in 2007 we had a halfway decent o-line, Bowe could have put up numbers that would have justified him going in the top 10 last season.  So maybe, just maybe, they see something in Ryan.  I don't see it, but I going to trust Herm on this one - he is going to draft the most talented football player available at #5.