From the FanPosts. Excellent work, aPacificChief.  -Primetime

 

I was doing some research on college QB's coming into the NFL, when I stumbled across something that might change the way we view college QB’s coming into the NFL.  We have all heard the terms of a “Franchise Quarterback,” or a “Product of the System (system QB).”  But I think I found a way to show the probability of a college QB being successful in the NFL regardless of the so called labels that he may be given coming out of college. 

A lot of the information I have compiled is based on a statistical analysis of the productivity of a QB prospect coming from college.  I know that statistics can be misleading if not taken in context,  especially if those same stat’s become the sole indicator of judging the college prospect.  But  if you take the numbers along with the physical attributes (height, weight, arm strength), and their other intangibles (leadership qualities, level of competition) you will have a much clearer indication of the players ability to succeed in the NFL.   

 

I found something interesting from studying past college QB’s who have succeeded in the NFL, and the other college QB’s who have failed to live up to expectations.   Most who had some level of success shared a  common denominator that gave them a higher chance to succeed.  While those who did not have this certain attribute (at no fault of their own) have a higher likelihood to turn into a bust.  I’m sure many of you are already saying, “So what the heck is that attribute already?”  It’s quite simple really, its PLAYING TIME! I remember Herm Edwards saying that he would prefer seniors because they just had more game film to evaluate.  Well, for a QB what is more important is not the film to study, but rather the repetitions they have playing the position.

 

Most of the QB’s coming out of college who have succeeded in the NFL have had at least three years of starting experience in their college programs.  While those QB’s who had out of this world numbers during their college years, but only played for two years tended to only compete for the headline on, “Who was the biggest draft blunder for the team that drafted him, or the NFL’s biggest draft  bust of all time”.   

 

College QB’s who had finished their final year of eligibility, and graduated from college also have a tendency to contribute to the prospect’s chance of producing in the NFL.  The NFL is littered with JR QB’s who have failed to live up to their labels of being a Franchise QB coming out of college.  I found that the QB’s who declared early and entered the NFL as a Junior in some circumstances could be productive, provided that he was able to sit behind an incumbent QB for 2 to 3 years and learn the system (and that is if there is not significant change in the Offensive system they run).  This is a study on  statistical analysis which is trying to find a link on the likelihood for succeeding in the NFL playing QB.

 

Now I will give you the numbers to back up my hypothesis.  The numbers is based on the college statistics accumulated by the QB prospect.  I will go back 10 years and look at the top college QB’s coming into the NFL.

 

 

1998

 

Peyton Manning   (Senior)

Year         Comp/ Attempts        Yards     TD/ INT      

‘94                   89/144                 1141            11/6

’95                   244/380               2954            22/4

’96                   243/390              3287             20/12

’97                   287/477              3819             36/11

 

A 3 year starter.

 

Ryan Leaf  (Senior) 

’96                   194/373              2811             21/12

’97                   210/375             3637              33/10

 

 

 

1999

 

Tim Couch (Junior)

’97                   363/547             3884              37/19

’98                   400/553             4275              36/15

 

Akili Smith

’97                   107/190             1298              12/6

’98                   191/325             3307              30/7

 

Basically a one year wonder.

 

Donovan McNabb

’95                   128/207             1991              16/6

’96                   118/215             1776              19/9

’97                   145/265             2488              20/6

’98                   157/251             2134              22/5

 

Daunte Culpepper

’95                   168/294             2071              12/10

’96                   187/314             2565              19/15

’97                   238/381             3065              25/10

’98                   296/402             3690              28/7

 

Cade McNown

’95                   122/245             1698              7/8

’96                   176/336             2424              12/16

’97                   189/312             3116              24/6

’98                   188/323             3130              23/10

 

The knock on Cade was that he did not even have  average arm strength.  A Danny Wuerffel type of QB. 

 

 

 

2000

 

Chad Pennington

’97                   253/428           3480                39/12

’98                   279/432           3419                24/7

’99                   275/405           3797                37/11

 

Selected in the 1st round.

 

 

Marc Bulger

’96                   19/42               352                  3/1

’97                   192/323           2465                14/10

’98                   240/369           3178                27/8

’99                   145/239           1729                11/13

 

Selected in the 6th round

 

 

 

Tom Brady

’97                   12/15               103                  0/0

’98                   214/350           2636                15/12

’99                   180/295           2216                16/6

 

Selected in the 6th round, and sat behind Drew Bledsoe.  It was in Brady’s 2nd year that he  got his opportunity to start after Bledsoe went down with an injury.

 

 

2001

 

Mike Vick (Junior)

’99                   90/152             1840                12/5

’00                   87/161             1234                8/6

 

Mike is a running back that happens to play QB, he was selected based on his raw physical talents.  Not his refined skills to play the QB position. 

 

 

 

Drew Brees

’97                   19/43               232                  0/1

’98                   361/569           3983                39/20

’99                   337/554           3909                25/12

‘00                   286/473           3393                24/12

 

Chosen in the 2nd round because of his lack of arm strength.

 

 

 

2002

 

David Carr

’00                   216/349           2729                23/12

’01                   308/476           4299                42/7

 

 

Joey Harrington

’99                   84/158             1180                10/3

’00                   195/375           2694                20/13

’01                   186/322           2415                23/5

 

A two year starter for the University of Oregon.

 

 

 

Patrick Ramsey

’99                   310/513           3410                25/24

’00                   229/389           2833                24/14

’01                   256/448           2935                22/13

 

A 3 year starter for Tulane, but his numbers seem to regress after his excellent sophomore year.

 

 

Jump to 2004

 

Eli Manning

’00                   16/33               170                  0/1

’01                   259/400           2948                31/9

’02                   279/481           3401                21/15

’03                   275/441           3600                29/10

 

Three years starting for Ole Miss.

 

 

Ben Roethlisberger

’01                   241/380           3105                25/13

’02                   271/428           3238                22/11

’03                   342/495           4486                37/10

 

Three year starter for Miami of Ohio.

 

 

Philip Rivers

’00                   237/441           3054                25/10

’01                   240/368           2586                16/7

’02                   262/418           3353                20/10

’03                   348/483           4491                34/7

 

Started 4 years for NC State.

 

 

 

JP Losman

’00                   58/115             722                  4/2

’01                   31/49               487                  4/1

’02                   230/401           2468                19/10

’03                   251/422           3077                33/4

 

A two year starter, split time with Patrick Ramsey during his freshman and sophomore years.

 

 

Finally, 2005

 

Alex Smith (Junior)

’03                   173/266           2247                15/3

’04                   214/317           2952                32/4

 

Nice TD to INT ratio, but only two years as a starter.

 

 

Aaron Rodgers (Junior)

’02                   164/265           2408                28/4   Junior College

’03                   215/349           2903                19/5

’04                   209/316           2566                24/18

 

Sat behind Brett Favre for 3 years, but started in College for 3 years albeit that one year was at a Junior College before transferring to Cal.

 

 

Jason Campbell

’01                   89/142             1117                4/4

’02                   94/149             1215                11/5

’03                   181/293           2267                10/8

’04                   188/270           2700                20/7

 

A two year starter for the Tigers.

 

Andrew Walter

’01                   38/86               546                  3/2

’02                   274/483           3877                28/15

’03                   221/421           3044                24/10

’04                   244/426           3150                30/9

 

Rewrote alot of ASU passing records.

 

Kyle Orton

’01                   107/216           1105                4/7

’02                   192/317           2257                13/9

’03                   251/414           2885                15/7

’04                   236/389           3090                31/5

 

(Side note thought it might be interesting to point out considering the circumstances with the Bears)

 

Rex Grossman drafted in '03

'00                    131/212           1866               21/7

'01                    259/395           3896               34/12

'02                    287/503           3402               22/17

 

Started 7 games in 2000, but his productivity decreased dramatically from '01 to '02)

 

Derek Anderson

’01                   17/41               263                  1/3

’02                   211/449           3313                25/13

’03                   261/510           4058                24/24

’04                   279/515           3615                29/17

 

 

Look at the names of the Quarterbacks who are doing well in the Pro’s, and reference them to the time they spent with their College programs.  Then ask yourself these following questions; Did the prospect start for 3 years for their program?  Did their numbers improve from year to year, peaking at their final year in college before turning pro?  Then see how they are doing with their respective pro teams.  I don’t think its by chance that the few QB’s who remain in the NFL are enjoying some form of success with their clubs.  Again its not an exact science, but the numbers cannot be ignored. 

 

Under this hypothesis Sam Bradford has a high probability of being a bust in the NFL.  The QB’s who did not succeed in the NFL was not because they lacked the talent to play the game, but rather did not have the experience on  the field to compliment their abilities. 

 

Sam Bradford

’07                   69%     3121      36/8

’08                   68%     4080      46/6

 

Nice numbers huh?  But only two years of starting experience.  Has all the tools to throw around the yard in the NFL, but only 2 years of game experience. I believe that Bradford should return to Norman for another year before turning pro.  Then he would have a better chance of succeeding in the NFL.

 

If I am to go with the numbers, the QB's out of college who might succeed in the NFL would be Graham Harrell, or Matt Stafford.  I put Harrell first only because he's the Senior of the two QB's coming out of college, but both are 3 year starters.  If free agency is the name of the game then I would look at Andrew Walter from Oakland very closely, if not in '09 then in 2010. The three QB’s had a lot of time on the field to warrant a serious look from Kansas City.

 

Graham Harrell

’05                   67%     422      3/0

’06                   66%     4555    38/11

’07                   71%     5705    48/11

’08                   71%     4747    41/ 7

 

 

Matt Stafford

'06              53 %  1749    7/3   

'07              56%   2523    19/10

'08              61%    3209    22/9

 

The first true freshman to start for the Bulldogs since Quincy Carter in '98, and Stafford started 12/12 games in '06. 

 

Remember its not an exact science.  ;)