What The Chiefs Should Be Looking For In Their QB Of The Future
by aPacificChief on Dec 7, 2008 6:08 AM CST
66 comments
From the FanPosts. Excellent work, aPacificChief. -Primetime
I was doing some research on college QB's coming into the NFL, when I stumbled across something that might change the way we view college QB’s coming into the NFL. We have all heard the terms of a “Franchise Quarterback,” or a “Product of the System (system QB).” But I think I found a way to show the probability of a college QB being successful in the NFL regardless of the so called labels that he may be given coming out of college.
A lot of the information I have compiled is based on a statistical analysis of the productivity of a QB prospect coming from college. I know that statistics can be misleading if not taken in context, especially if those same stat’s become the sole indicator of judging the college prospect. But if you take the numbers along with the physical attributes (height, weight, arm strength), and their other intangibles (leadership qualities, level of competition) you will have a much clearer indication of the players ability to succeed in the NFL.
I found something interesting from studying past college QB’s who have succeeded in the NFL, and the other college QB’s who have failed to live up to expectations. Most who had some level of success shared a common denominator that gave them a higher chance to succeed. While those who did not have this certain attribute (at no fault of their own) have a higher likelihood to turn into a bust. I’m sure many of you are already saying, “So what the heck is that attribute already?” It’s quite simple really, its PLAYING TIME! I remember Herm Edwards saying that he would prefer seniors because they just had more game film to evaluate. Well, for a QB what is more important is not the film to study, but rather the repetitions they have playing the position.
Most of the QB’s coming out of college who have succeeded in the NFL have had at least three years of starting experience in their college programs. While those QB’s who had out of this world numbers during their college years, but only played for two years tended to only compete for the headline on, “Who was the biggest draft blunder for the team that drafted him, or the NFL’s biggest draft bust of all time”.
College QB’s who had finished their final year of eligibility, and graduated from college also have a tendency to contribute to the prospect’s chance of producing in the NFL. The NFL is littered with JR QB’s who have failed to live up to their labels of being a Franchise QB coming out of college. I found that the QB’s who declared early and entered the NFL as a Junior in some circumstances could be productive, provided that he was able to sit behind an incumbent QB for 2 to 3 years and learn the system (and that is if there is not significant change in the Offensive system they run). This is a study on statistical analysis which is trying to find a link on the likelihood for succeeding in the NFL playing QB.
Now I will give you the numbers to back up my hypothesis. The numbers is based on the college statistics accumulated by the QB prospect. I will go back 10 years and look at the top college QB’s coming into the NFL.
1998
Peyton Manning (Senior)
Year Comp/ Attempts Yards TD/ INT
‘94 89/144 1141 11/6
’95 244/380 2954 22/4
’96 243/390 3287 20/12
’97 287/477 3819 36/11
A 3 year starter.
Ryan Leaf (Senior)
’96 194/373 2811 21/12
’97 210/375 3637 33/10
1999
Tim Couch (Junior)
’97 363/547 3884 37/19
’98 400/553 4275 36/15
Akili Smith
’97 107/190 1298 12/6
’98 191/325 3307 30/7
Basically a one year wonder.
Donovan McNabb
’95 128/207 1991 16/6
’96 118/215 1776 19/9
’97 145/265 2488 20/6
’98 157/251 2134 22/5
Daunte Culpepper
’95 168/294 2071 12/10
’96 187/314 2565 19/15
’97 238/381 3065 25/10
’98 296/402 3690 28/7
Cade McNown
’95 122/245 1698 7/8
’96 176/336 2424 12/16
’97 189/312 3116 24/6
’98 188/323 3130 23/10
The knock on Cade was that he did not even have average arm strength. A Danny Wuerffel type of QB.
2000
Chad Pennington
’97 253/428 3480 39/12
’98 279/432 3419 24/7
’99 275/405 3797 37/11
Selected in the 1st round.
Marc Bulger
’96 19/42 352 3/1
’97 192/323 2465 14/10
’98 240/369 3178 27/8
’99 145/239 1729 11/13
Selected in the 6th round
Tom Brady
’97 12/15 103 0/0
’98 214/350 2636 15/12
’99 180/295 2216 16/6
Selected in the 6th round, and sat behind Drew Bledsoe. It was in Brady’s 2nd year that he got his opportunity to start after Bledsoe went down with an injury.
2001
Mike Vick (Junior)
’99 90/152 1840 12/5
’00 87/161 1234 8/6
Mike is a running back that happens to play QB, he was selected based on his raw physical talents. Not his refined skills to play the QB position.
Drew Brees
’97 19/43 232 0/1
’98 361/569 3983 39/20
’99 337/554 3909 25/12
‘00 286/473 3393 24/12
Chosen in the 2nd round because of his lack of arm strength.
2002
David Carr
’00 216/349 2729 23/12
’01 308/476 4299 42/7
Joey Harrington
’99 84/158 1180 10/3
’00 195/375 2694 20/13
’01 186/322 2415 23/5
A two year starter for the University of Oregon.
Patrick Ramsey
’99 310/513 3410 25/24
’00 229/389 2833 24/14
’01 256/448 2935 22/13
A 3 year starter for Tulane, but his numbers seem to regress after his excellent sophomore year.
Jump to 2004
Eli Manning
’00 16/33 170 0/1
’01 259/400 2948 31/9
’02 279/481 3401 21/15
’03 275/441 3600 29/10
Three years starting for Ole Miss.
Ben Roethlisberger
’01 241/380 3105 25/13
’02 271/428 3238 22/11
’03 342/495 4486 37/10
Three year starter for Miami of Ohio.
Philip Rivers
’00 237/441 3054 25/10
’01 240/368 2586 16/7
’02 262/418 3353 20/10
’03 348/483 4491 34/7
Started 4 years for NC State.
JP Losman
’00 58/115 722 4/2
’01 31/49 487 4/1
’02 230/401 2468 19/10
’03 251/422 3077 33/4
A two year starter, split time with Patrick Ramsey during his freshman and sophomore years.
Finally, 2005
Alex Smith (Junior)
’03 173/266 2247 15/3
’04 214/317 2952 32/4
Nice TD to INT ratio, but only two years as a starter.
Aaron Rodgers (Junior)
’02 164/265 2408 28/4 Junior College
’03 215/349 2903 19/5
’04 209/316 2566 24/18
Sat behind Brett Favre for 3 years, but started in College for 3 years albeit that one year was at a Junior College before transferring to Cal.
Jason Campbell
’01 89/142 1117 4/4
’02 94/149 1215 11/5
’03 181/293 2267 10/8
’04 188/270 2700 20/7
A two year starter for the Tigers.
Andrew Walter
’01 38/86 546 3/2
’02 274/483 3877 28/15
’03 221/421 3044 24/10
’04 244/426 3150 30/9
Rewrote alot of ASU passing records.
Kyle Orton
’01 107/216 1105 4/7
’02 192/317 2257 13/9
’03 251/414 2885 15/7
’04 236/389 3090 31/5
(Side note thought it might be interesting to point out considering the circumstances with the Bears)
Rex Grossman drafted in '03
'00 131/212 1866 21/7
'01 259/395 3896 34/12
'02 287/503 3402 22/17
Started 7 games in 2000, but his productivity decreased dramatically from '01 to '02)
Derek Anderson
’01 17/41 263 1/3
’02 211/449 3313 25/13
’03 261/510 4058 24/24
’04 279/515 3615 29/17
Look at the names of the Quarterbacks who are doing well in the Pro’s, and reference them to the time they spent with their College programs. Then ask yourself these following questions; Did the prospect start for 3 years for their program? Did their numbers improve from year to year, peaking at their final year in college before turning pro? Then see how they are doing with their respective pro teams. I don’t think its by chance that the few QB’s who remain in the NFL are enjoying some form of success with their clubs. Again its not an exact science, but the numbers cannot be ignored.
Under this hypothesis Sam Bradford has a high probability of being a bust in the NFL. The QB’s who did not succeed in the NFL was not because they lacked the talent to play the game, but rather did not have the experience on the field to compliment their abilities.
Sam Bradford
’07 69% 3121 36/8
’08 68% 4080 46/6
Nice numbers huh? But only two years of starting experience. Has all the tools to throw around the yard in the NFL, but only 2 years of game experience. I believe that Bradford should return to Norman for another year before turning pro. Then he would have a better chance of succeeding in the NFL.
If I am to go with the numbers, the QB's out of college who might succeed in the NFL would be Graham Harrell, or Matt Stafford. I put Harrell first only because he's the Senior of the two QB's coming out of college, but both are 3 year starters. If free agency is the name of the game then I would look at Andrew Walter from Oakland very closely, if not in '09 then in 2010. The three QB’s had a lot of time on the field to warrant a serious look from Kansas City.
Graham Harrell
’05 67% 422 3/0
’06 66% 4555 38/11
’07 71% 5705 48/11
’08 71% 4747 41/ 7
Matt Stafford
'06 53 % 1749 7/3
'07 56% 2523 19/10
'08 61% 3209 22/9
The first true freshman to start for the Bulldogs since Quincy Carter in '98, and Stafford started 12/12 games in '06.
Remember its not an exact science. ;)
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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INTERESTING
Thanks for the informative post. IMO Stafford just is not accurate enough on a consistant basis. Harrell would look GREAT in Chief’s red running the ARROWSPREAD offense!
by dklogue1 on Dec 7, 2008 6:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thank you, thought the information was too good to not pass on.
I heard on ESPN from Todd McShay that Stafford has gun for an arm. Similiar to that guy who plays in that mile high place for the donkeys. :)
by aPacificChief on Dec 7, 2008 6:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
On Brees....
It wan’t so much his arm as it was his height. Only being six foot dropped his prospect.
Indecision is the key to flexibility
by cmpotter on Dec 7, 2008 6:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
It was a combination of the Height along with his lack of velocity on his throws that dropped him.
That’s beside the point. The post is on playing time equating to success, not where the prospect was selected.
by aPacificChief on Dec 7, 2008 6:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
great post
very informative… makes me rethink what quarterbacks i’d want to take in the draft
by Vince D on Dec 7, 2008 7:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thank you, I'm thinking of Patenting it.... :)
Try it, it works . I looked up Dan Marino, and found 3years of starting experience for when he played at Pitt. Just remember it has some players who fit the criteria, but for some reason they did not do well in the Pro’s (i.e. Cade McNown)
by aPacificChief on Dec 7, 2008 12:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice job gathering info
It makes sense that guys who have more time to develop and work on their skills in college would be more prepared to handle it in the pros where they will likely feel out of their league for a while. It’s not always the case that guys who played longer in college are better than those that don’t, but its a safe general assumption that the guy that stayed would benefit from it.
The problem, as always, is dollars and cents. Underclassmen who had a good year look at the draft class for that year and will see a weak class that might give them a chance to get drafted higher and thus make more money are likely to sieze the opportunity instead of chancing having a mediocre year the next and hurting their position and thus lose millions of dollars.
This year for instance, is a very poor Senior class for QBs so a highy graded underclassman has a good chance of getting drafted high despite his lack of experience.
by ChiefDJ on Dec 7, 2008 8:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thank you, I was looking into the info when it just started to snowball.
And I agree with you about the financial assumptions on why certain players opt out of college, for the Pro’s. But wouldn’t it make more sense financially if they had longevity in the league, rather than the just cashing in on just one fat intial contract?
by aPacificChief on Dec 7, 2008 12:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also I'd blame it on the Agents convincing these guys that they can be rich,
and not caring about these prospects long term success.
by aPacificChief on Dec 7, 2008 12:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post Rec'd
Playing time is one of the most important factors (if not just because you have the most tape on him and other schools see plenty of tape on you and still can’t stop you).
by Joel Thorman on Dec 7, 2008 9:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think Matt Ryan
is a great example of what it does for you to stay 4 years in college. He was by far the most prepared QB I have seen in awhile coming into the Pros. It makes perfect sense that guys who have more time to develop do better in the NFL. But it also has to do with putting people in a position to succeed. Ryan has a great running game to take pressure off of him and a decent offensive line to protect him. Bradford would definitely benifit from the extra time in college as all players do, but I don’t think we will be in a position to take him next year. IMO
by TheQ on Dec 7, 2008 11:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Excellent point Q, it was your fanpost that got me started on this :)
I wanted to see how many Juniors coming out of college did actually succeed in the NFL, and since Bradford was a 3rd year Sophmore what was his chances of doing well in the Pro’s?
Why stuck on Bradford if Harrell or Stafford could get the job done? By 2010 we should be starting to make serious strides into the playoffs, and our QB would be sitting already in our sidelines or on the field waiting for his turn to take us to the Superbowl. That’s if Tyler does not progress.
I used this hypothesis on Thigpen’s college numbers, and he’s borderline passing. He has three years starting experience, but only started 7 games in his first season being number one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 7, 2008 12:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Harrell is another guy that I like a lot, possibly even McCoy
I knew going into writing the post that there are as many cons as pros (if not more) to the argument of drafting someone like Bradford. I am glad it has created a lot of discussion, because I don’t want to see us completely ignore this position and have to sit through what we were forced to watch the first half of the season. (hopefully the powers that be are paying attention) Thigpen is definitely a pleasant surprise that few could have called. And I agree with Lanier’s comment in my post about how you start to watch a certain college play and become enamored with their potential. I have seen quite a bit of Big 12 play this season and there are a lot of QBs that I think may someday be a starter or good back up in the NFL. I just have a “gut feeling” that Bradford could be special, and I very well could be wrong. I think it won’t be about him come Draft time as much as it will be about what do we think is our greatest need with the players that are availible when we draft. Just wishful thinking on my part to land a future franchise QB!
by TheQ on Dec 7, 2008 1:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What about if Harrell or Stafford become a franchise QB for us.
If we take to the argument of starts oppose to simple potential because of statistics, we very well could have a QB to build around for the future.
I don’t want to see us completely ignore this position and have to sit through what we were forced to watch the first half of the season.
I admit the hypothesis Its not an exact science, but it improves the chances that we can hit on a QB prospect. Because we all know how much we suck at drafting QB’s. If the formula proves right the Chiefs will never again be in a position that it has been this past year.
by aPacificChief on Dec 7, 2008 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If Harrell or Stafford become a franchise QB for us
I will be extremely happy that we got one right. As you say we don’t have much of a track record in developing QBs. But I think there is so much more that needs to be considered when drafting someone who might possibly be the future of your franchise other than playing time. I think that NFL teams realize the value that the extra seasoning has when selecting QBs, but I don’t think they would always choose someone on that basis alone. In fact, I am amazed at how many players are drafted almost exclusively on potential alone. I always wonder why some players get passed over that have a more polished college resume for a workout warrior with the right frame, etc. And this goes for QBs as well.
I am curious how Brian Brohm’s college career looks in this model? I thought he was someone who had a good college career, good numbers, etc,. but he was beat out by a 7th round pick in Matt Flynn who no one thought much about.
by TheQ on Dec 7, 2008 9:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Flynn is only a 1 year starter for LSU
the problem with this model is we still have to be pateint and wait 2-3 years to be proven correct. Lets not judge Brohm in his first year because of his position on the depth chart, but rather look 2 -3 years from now and see which of the two (Brohm or Flynn) have been more successful playing the position.
I am curious how Brian Brohm’s college career looks in this model?
Brohm
’04 67% 819 yds 6/2
’05 69% 2883 yds 19/5
’06 64% 3049 yds 16/5
’07 65% 4024 yds 30/12
A 3 year starter for Louisville
I thought he was someone who had a good college career, good numbers, etc,. but he was beat out by a 7th round pick in Matt Flynn who no one thought much about.
I’m surprised that Ryan and Flacco have done so well so early in their careers, but even HOF QB’s in the past took time to develop. Also both Ryan and Flacco needed to be rushed into the playing field, only because their respective teams had no better canidate to play QB for them. Unlike Brohm, who has Rodgers playing ahead of him, plus I believe Rodgers was in the last year of his contract before recently inking an extention.
ON the beat out by Flynn for the second string, I have no idea what transpires in the club house with coach and GM, but I remember hearing that Brohm was recovering from shoulder surgery (during the draft), or some sort of injury to his throwing shoulder. But being 3rd string doesn’t diminish the possibility of him being a successful #1 sometime in the future.
by aPacificChief on Dec 8, 2008 5:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Joe Flacco is another example of a senior.
Though he didn’t play much his freshman year and not at all his sophmore year. His Junior and Senior year were pretty good.
Indecision is the key to flexibility
by cmpotter on Dec 7, 2008 1:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree, he is another good one
I thought Ryan would be good, but I never thought Flacco could come in from Delaware and play at almost an equal level to Ryan. He definitely could make the throws coming out, but I am surprised at how the game is not too big for him. It makes more sense now why Baltimore traded back up to get him. If you listened to the draft pundits last year you never would have thought we would have 2 rookies playing at such a high level this season. Especially on teams that had losing records last year.
by TheQ on Dec 7, 2008 1:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What the Chiefs should be looking for...
Mark Sanchez
by HIV 2 Elway on Dec 7, 2008 1:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Where could we get him?
Will he last until early Round 3 or would we have to take him in Round 2?
by PVChiefsfan on Dec 7, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He is flying under the radar right now. Maybe we will get lucky.
Indecision is the key to flexibility
by cmpotter on Dec 7, 2008 1:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Um...Sanchez could be a bad pick, only because
He’s started for only one year at Southern Cal.
Mark Sanchez
’06 3/7 9 yards 0/1
’07 69/114 695 7/5
’08 213/331 2794 30/10
Could be the next Akili Smith with one stellar year. If we are selecting in rounds 4-5 for a QB I would like JP Wilson out of Alabama, a senior with 3 years starting experience.
by aPacificChief on Dec 7, 2008 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would go with Sanchez over JP Wilson
Mostly because of the athletic ability of Sanchez, he reminds me of Thigpen with his build and cannon arm.
"A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week."
by bigbe on Dec 9, 2008 5:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, then I'll give you another name if not JP Wilson....how about Nate Brown?
But Wilson has played for 3 years at a big time program with the Tide, while Sanchez has only played for one. Who is more of a gamble in your mind?
I’m still working on the QB’s for the AP Draft list (Laniers Brain child) so the info will be provided then on the QB prospects.
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 9, 2008 7:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I personally don't care how many years he started...
SC is a football factory. How many years did Cassle start there? I’d take him in a heartbeat too. He didn’t start mulitple years because the guy ahead of him was also an NFL QB. And hell, I’d have taken Booty too if Minnesota didn’t scoop him up a few picks before us.
by HIV 2 Elway on Dec 10, 2008 12:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This whole piece is based upon making an educated choice when projecting QB's, not guessing.
Because with your assumptions for success in essence thats what you would be doing. Look at the numbers they speak for themselves. The theory is not base on mere speculation, but on data that has a clear thread of relation to one another.
SC is a football factory
I’m a big Southern Cal fan since I was a boy, they maybe good at developing football players, but they sure are not very good at offering quality QB’s.
Rodney Peete, Pat O’hara, Todd Marinovich, Rob Johnson, Kyle Wachholtz, John David Booty ( that name just scares me), Matt Cassel, Carson Palmer. Hardly noteworthy don’t you think? Not many HOF’s in that bunch. I think of all the QB’s that came out from USC the past 20 years only Palmer has a real shot at becoming great.
How many years did Cassl start there?
You know I wonder??? He was a backup all throughout his career, why could he never make it to being number one on the depth chart? EVER? and even if he was considered moderately good why did New England draft another QB this year in the 3rd round (Kevin O’Connell)? Was it because Brady needed a better drinking buddy, and since O’Connell sounds irish maybe he had a better shot at holding it down than Cassel? Hey Bono won 13 games for us, would you trust that he could take us to the Superbowl, and win it? Dude couldn’t get us past the Divisional playoff game.
Cassel is so far so good, I’d like to see what he can do, but the jury is still out on him. If he does well then good for him. I wish him no harm, I would be glad if he made a good living for himself and his family. But until he can produce consistently year after year he’s still a backup who’s happens to be having a good year.
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 10, 2008 2:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would venture to say...
there isn’t guessing when it comes to the draft. These players are scouted, evaluated, scouted, and evaluated over and over. To the point you make about the SC QBs. It seems the majority of starters under Pete Caroll have been pretty good coming in to the league.
They drafted O’Connell because they only had two QBs. O’Connell was the best QB left at the time and the Pats didn’t really have another need in the 3rd round. You can go to any school and not find a ton of starting QBs from the same school that were good. It is a crap shoot. In the top 30 statistical qbs this year….Only two of them are from the same school.
Indecision is the key to flexibility
by cmpotter on Dec 11, 2008 4:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If these QB prospects are evaluated so thoroughly then why so many busts?
How come so many do not succeed?
They drafted O’Connell because they only had two QBs. O’Connell was the best QB left at the time and the Pats didn’t really have another need in the 3rd round
Ok lets say that was the case, if the player was suppose to be insurance in case of a QB injury crisis, why in the 3rd round? Are you kidding me about not needing players other than QB? Their Defense is aging, I would be looking for a safety or another linebacker to groom. Teams usually use the first 3 rounds in areas of need or the BPA. The gambles on potential are in the later rounds. Especially if the team feels as if the position is only a moderate concern.
You can go to any school and not find a ton of starting QBs from the same school that were good.
IMO because if the QB was good he should be starting for the same program for 3 years. That means as a college scout you should be able to bring in the top highschool prospects every four years. Wouldn’t that be next to impossible considering other schools are recruiting the same guys. Also, alot of those blue chip players would like to play early in their college careers.
You can go to any school and not find a ton of starting QBs from the same school that were good. It is a crap shoot.
I’m not sure if I understand this statement, because earlier you said that….
These players are scouted, evaluated, scouted, and evaluated over and over.
Don’t you think with all the millions of dollars flying around in college football, alot of effort is expended in finding top prospects also? These college HC are paid pretty well alot hangs on them finding high schoolers who can play QB for them.
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 11, 2008 5:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Who, under Pete Carrol, are you calling a bust?
If you’re ready to write of Leinart, are you ready to write off Vince Young as well?
by HIV 2 Elway on Dec 11, 2008 7:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A few more
Keary Colbert, Dwayne Jarrett, Mike Williams, Frostee Rucker, Darnell Bing, Dominique Byrd, Winston Justice, Shaun Cody, Mike Patterson.
And the last one…Reggie Bush because he was drafted so high.
by Joel Thorman on Dec 11, 2008 8:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It is pretty even success to bust.
Shaun Cody was a second rounder and 9 picks later Lofa Tatupu was picked. Colbert was at the end of the second round. 2003 Carson Palmer, Troy Polamalu, and Justin Fargas were picked. Frostee Rucker was picked at the end of the third. Lindell White was taken before him in the third. He is pretty good as well. Ryan Kalil came out in the second round same year as Jarrett. Carrol has put plenty of good starters in the league along tatsui starting guard for Arizona. Darnell Bing was fourth round pick….can’t really call him a bust.
Indecision is the key to flexibility
by cmpotter on Dec 11, 2008 9:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
1:1 ratio?
Wow. That’s not very good at all.
And, yes, Darnell Bing was a bust. A 4th rounder that’s been on 4 teams in 3 years?
by Joel Thorman on Dec 11, 2008 9:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You can't call a second day pic a bust.
It doesn’t work that way. Go ahead and show me a school that is better. There isn’t one. Besides the original topic was about QB. Either way you aren’t going to find a school that sends a ton of perfect or even good player into the league.
Indecision is the key to flexibility
by cmpotter on Dec 11, 2008 9:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Justin Medlock wasn't a bust?
I hear ya on the USC players…I just wanted to point out that there have been more than a few busts in recent years (which have caused rumors that NFL teams are now leery of USC players…). A little devil’s advocate never hurt anyone :)
by Joel Thorman on Dec 11, 2008 10:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Point taken
Fifth round is high for a kicker. Damn UCLA players. Funny thing is he was the only UCLA player drafted that year.
Indecision is the key to flexibility
by cmpotter on Dec 11, 2008 10:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That was in response
To cmpotter saying you can’t call a 2nd day pick a bust.
by Joel Thorman on Dec 11, 2008 1:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If not bust, how about a major disappointment?
4th round is relatively high in a 7 round draft. Rounds 5 through 7 would be more acceptable if the player completely flops.
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 11, 2008 2:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It all depends on what kind of expectations are on him.
If he is from a big school, people will expect more than if he is from a smaller school. Remember Jared Allen? Fourth round pick that people weren’t sure if he was even going to make the team. We picked him primarily for his long snapping ability. He just never got off the field. You never know what you really get no matter where they are picked. You generally pick seven players and are happy if three of them end up contributing. Obviously sometimes less and sometimes more are picked.
Indecision is the key to flexibility
by cmpotter on Dec 11, 2008 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
First of all, Are you related to Peter Carroll?
And to say if the QB prospect is a bust at the pro’s under Carroll tutelage is just wrong. Whether the player succeeds or not is beyond his control, Leinart played well for him at USC, but the rest now is up to Matt.
‘Coz the last time I checked he doesn’t give a rats “be_hind” on what we think about him, so to argue for or against him makes no sense. Pete is making the millions coaching the Trojans, as for us we’re just getting by.
And to say if the QB prospect is a bust in the pro’s under Carroll’s tutelage is just wrong. Whether the player succeeds or not is beyond his control, Leinart played well for him at USC, but the rest now is up to Matt. That goes as well to the other college players who played for at USC who are now in the NFL.
Leinart has the field experience to be successful in the NFL, he’s started for the Trojans for 3 years and graduated. He fits everything in the model for him to succeed, but why isn’t it translating in the NFL? It might be more to the point that he’s too busy putting on the TROJANS since leaving So. Cal. that’s got him preoccupied.
Vince Young, he on the other hand has everything stacked against him (according to the theory), He’s started for only 2 years, and declared early entering the NFL as a junior. The knock on him is that his throwing mechanics need a lot more refining. The man has the intangibles, but his throwing motion needs work and a lot of it. I don’t think his struggles in the NFL are by chance?
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 11, 2008 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry message got repeated, its early in the morning over here.
And to say if the QB prospect is a bust in the pro’s under Carroll’s tutelage is just wrong. Whether the player succeeds or not is beyond his control, Leinart played well for him at USC, but the rest now is up to Matt. That goes as well to the other college players who played for at USC who are now in the NFL.
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 11, 2008 1:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It is that way with any sport.
How many Heisman trophy winners end up being busts? College is so much different than the NFL. The talent is everywhere making it harder for these QBs or any position for that matter to dominate. You can name plenty of busts who were successful in college and had that great arm or and great pressence.
Here is a list of the past QBs to win the Heisman. Of course the most prestigious honor for an individual player:
2007-TIm Tebow-who knows
2006-Troy Smith-Upseated by this years rookie qb on the team
2004-Matt Leinart-?????
2003-Jason White-I think he is selling insurance somewhere
2002-Carson Palmer-Pretty Good but injured right now
2001-Eric Crouch-Quitter
2000-Chris Weine-Not to good
1996-Danny Wuerffel-Huh
1993-Charlie Ward-Became a decent NBA guard for a little while
1992-Gino Toretta-How long was he in the league I don’t remmber
1990-Ty Detmer-Decent backup
1989-Andre Ware-Huge bust
1986-Vinny- Had a pretty good long career. Not great, but not bad
1984-Doug Flutie-Tore up Canada for years. NFL career wasn’t bad
1971-Pat Sullivan-Who
1970-Jim Plunkett-OK finally someone who is a Hall of Famer….Oh wait no he isn’t.
My point is that all these players were evaluated based on achievement and talent. Not a great list in the eyes of the NFL, but they were when they were coming into the league….minus Troy Smith. 1983 was the year that had the best qb crop ever and the Heisman went to Mike Rozier. All they have to base there choices on is what they have done. There is no way of knowing.
Indecision is the key to flexibility
by cmpotter on Dec 11, 2008 7:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that has more to do with the infatuation that society has with numbers.
Isn’t the Heisman winners based on their statistics more than anything else?
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 11, 2008 1:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Typically it helps to win games as well
It is an MVP award. A lot of those player played in or won championships.
Indecision is the key to flexibility
by cmpotter on Dec 11, 2008 1:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup, the two go hand in hand (winning/ nice stats)
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 11, 2008 2:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
JP Wilson is not doing well statiscally in his senior year, but he is a 3 year starter.
So I would think if Thigpen is suppose to be our #1 next year, Wilson would be worth a look at the 4th round.
If Thigpen does not look the part after ’09, Andrew Walter from Oakland should become a free agent in 2010. Then we would have Wilson and Walter openly competiting for the starters position at QB.
by aPacificChief on Dec 7, 2008 2:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Wow, awesome post
Great work. I’m going to mention this post to the fans over at Buffalo Rumblings.
By the way, hope you guys have figured out by now that JP Losman is not your answer for next year!
by thefourwinds on Dec 7, 2008 11:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, I'm happy that you enjoyed the post. But I'm sorry this information is the intellectual property of the KC Chiefs, and can only be used for the teams express purposes.
I’m gonna ask Chris to remove the post before other teams read it. I’m just joking :) Hey if the theory is right all of the NFL will benefit from having quality QB’s throughout the league. Forcing young prospect to second think their intentions to declare early if they do want to succeed in the NFL.
hope you guys have figured out by now that JP Losman is not your answer for next year!
Several of us here at AP thought that JP Losman was worth a look next year before we found out what Thigpen could do. After studying his numbers and comparing them to the model I can see now why he was struggling at Buffalo. I would prefer Andrew Walter over Losman now.
by aPacificChief on Dec 8, 2008 5:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Try telling this to Cardinal Fans!
Matt Leinart:
Stats Overview Passing
YEAR CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2003 255 402 3556 63.4 8.85 73 38 9 15 164.46
2004 269 412 3322 65.3 8.06 69 33 6 24 156.54
2005 283 431 3815 65.7 8.85 67 28 8 17 157.74
And Kurt Warner only started his senior year at Northern Iowa!! I’m sure this is just the exception though, and not a proof of an error.
by EyePod on Dec 9, 2008 3:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I hate when we try to put up numbers in the comment box it becomes this garbbled mess.
If I’m reading it right, look at the numbers of Leinart TD to INT ratio he seems to be making bad decisions. TD’s went down while his INT’s remained the same and that was in his Senior year. He should be making better decisions at this stage of his development.
On the professional career of Matt. I think reason why he hasen’t proved himself on the field is because he’s primarily using his little head to make his decisions for him. With age should come maturity, but if your only interested in having a good time what else can you do as a coach? Force him?
And Kurt Warner only started his senior year at Northern Iowa!! I’m sure this is just the exception though, and not a proof of an error
I think that is where the NFL will miss the NFL Europe the most. Allowing under developed QB’s a chance to improve their game experience. If I remember it right guys like Brad Johnson & Kurt Warner were both products of the World league.
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 9, 2008 7:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My point is NFL teams don't have the luxury of waiting for their projects to develop.
So they end up giving up on a player and moving in another direction. What the QB needs the most IMO is playing time and lots of it, so he can improve his game.
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 9, 2008 7:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A Chiefs QB's worst enemy....Dick Curl
What else needs to be said, i don’t care if we draft Sam Bradford or Joel Osborn from NW missouri they won’t be getting the coaching they need to develop…
"A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week."
by bigbe on Dec 9, 2008 5:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Give Curl some credit....Thigpen could not be succeeding all by himself. Some of it has to be from his QB coach.
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 9, 2008 7:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd give Gonzo more credit than Curl in Thigpen's success...
I think Gailey is a big help too, he knows what the chiefs had to change to make Tyler competitive.
"A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week."
by bigbe on Dec 10, 2008 4:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good post
but i doubt very seriously that a nybody really looks at Walter to be a starter, nor should they.
by IamtheGreatest on Dec 9, 2008 6:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Why not Andrew Walter? How much have we seen of him?
We all know the situation at Oakland with Crazy Al, and the instability of the coaching staff. Talk about challenges in trying to make a name for yourself with those circumstances.
Len Dawson sat around awhile, was even cut before landing with the Chiefs. Alot of teams didn’t know much about him when he was available. He didn’t do too bad for himself. Its the unknown QB’s that tend to be treated like scrap, and thats good for us because we can sign him relatively cheap.
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 9, 2008 7:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
and weren't we saying the same thing about Thigpin after the Atlanta game?
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 9, 2008 8:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
GREAT POST
Can anyone knows what is brodie croyle stats back in the college?
AD
by ali_djoo on Dec 12, 2008 12:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah he was injured alot. :)
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Dec 12, 2008 2:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He had a lot of the school records until JPW.
Indecision is the key to flexibility
by cmpotter on Dec 13, 2008 10:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
you want Jeff Beck?
let ya have him for a 3-6th rounder……….. eh?
"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08
by HuskerDolphin on Dec 15, 2008 3:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
lol.........sorry........I meant John Beck
he’s the qb…….not Jeff Beck……he’s a great guitar player, may have to give us a 2nd rounder for him
"You found that word today......and that word is Character"- Coach Sparano 11/9/08
by HuskerDolphin on Dec 15, 2008 6:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Doesnt matter
With Thigpen playing somewhat well KC will not take a top tier QB.
by theboweshow on Dec 15, 2008 5:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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