Bowl-Bound Offensive Players to Watch
by Chris Thorman on Dec 31, 2008 10:08 AM CST
in 2008 Kansas City Chiefs Campaign
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I think we can all agree that the Kansas City Chiefs are taking either a quarterback or an offensive tackle with the #3 overall pick, should they choose to keep it. I've chosen QB Sam Bradford, QB Matt Stafford, OT Michael Oher and WR Michael Crabtree (to mix it up) as guys to watch this week and next.
Yesterday, we went over the top defensive players to watch in Bowl games this week.
Anyone else you want to point out as a To Watch player in a bowl game, let us know in the comments.
WR Michael Crabtree
Game: Cotton Bowl, Texas Tech v. Ole Miss
When: Friday Jan. 2 at Noon central time
Before you start arguing that the Chiefs would never draft Michael Crabtree at the #3 spot (You're right, they wouldn't), he's a top prospect that may or may not come out of school this year and worthy of taking a look at. Even if the Chiefs don't have any real interest in drafting him.
Living in Austin, almost everyone I encounter dislikes Michael Crabtree first for being a Red Raider and secondly for his last second touchdown earlier this year that give the Texas Longhorns their first loss of the season.
Here are Crabtree's stats and a highlight reel.
Along with Michael Crabtree, the Cotton Bowl will also include QB Graham Harrell, another top notch prospect.
OT Michael Oher
Game: Cotton Bowl, Texas Tech v. Ole Miss
When: Friday Jan. 2 at Noon central time
"He's got the best feet I've seen in years for an offensive lineman. He's very physically gifted and there really isn't anything he can't do at left tackle. I can't imagine anything other than major injury that would keep him from coming into the league and playing well at left tackle for the next 10 or 12 years."
Here is a couple of clips from a game earlier this year.
Oher has also been a popular mention here, showing up in 109 comments.
QB Sam Bradford
Game: BCS National Championship, Oklahoma v. Florida
When: Jan. 8, 7 PM central time
If you follow football at all, and especially if you live in Big 12 country, you've heard about Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford for some time now. I won't spend much time dissecting the Heisman Trophy winner. Here are some highlights of his. He will definitely be on a number of team's radars come April.
Bradford is possibly at the top of the Chiefs' draft wish list.
QB Matt Stafford
Game: Capital One Bowl, Georgia v. Michigan St.
When: Jan 1. at Noon central time
I haven't seen much live action of Matthew Stafford but I've been hearing his name a lot since before last year's draft. He's definitely not as good as Sam Bradford. I've always been skeptical of the footage I did see on him and the info I did gather. He'll be a high pick almost no matter what though.
That's it on the Bowl players for now. Since it is New Year's Day tomorrow, we may be a touch late on our morning post. You know, we'll be staying up late and stuff. We will be putting up an open thread tomorrow for the Bowl games, so you can discuss all of these players were talking about.
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I am sending a mini Chiefs helmet to Ole Miss
through a friends nephew who plays on the team with Oher. I am asking him to sign it now in anticipation that he may be selected by us. Worst case, I have his autpgraph on a team helmet he didnt play for.
See my signature line.
We need a future defensive leader, his name is James Laurinaitis and he can be selected in round 1 of the upcoming Draft.
"But what do I know, I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"
Interesting that 3 of those 4 are underclassmen
I believe Oher is the only senior, so possibly (but not likely) he might be the only one in the draft come April. Although I highly doubt that, it’s still possible.
Put me in the O-Line camp for our first pick (assuming no holes are filled through free agency). I just believe that you build your team from the inside out, and with the struggles we’ve had on our line (both sides), I think the value pick for us would be an O-lineman.
Another name that we won’t be able to see this weekend is Andre Smith from Alabama, due to disciplinary reasons, but I’ve heard his name up there with Oher’s as the top LT this year.
by Chiefs n Chopper on Dec 31, 2008 10:38 AM CST reply actions
It would serve Smith best
to stay in school one more year, to get past what happened to him and prove he is worthy of a top ten pick. If he comes out early, he will fall farther and harder than Randy Moss did. Someone close to him should have seen this coming and steered him clear of those problems.
We need a future defensive leader, his name is James Laurinaitis and he can be selected in round 1 of the upcoming Draft.
"But what do I know, I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"
I have very little doubt that Smith will stay because of this. He will become a pro. And I just dont think his stock is going to fall that far either. He’s the nations best o line men in a long time. Oher is good but i just believe Smith is by far the best. He’s still going to be a top 5 pick I think. Hopefully your right and we can do some tradin and get him later but I think if we get him its gonna be at 3 and the Rams might even pick him.
O-line value?
I think the value pick for us would be an O-lineman.
Gotta disagree. Selecting a tackle with the 3rd pick that would eventually start at a non-premium position (RT) isn’t a good value.
On the flip side, picking a tackle and starting him at LT would then shift Albert to RT or G meaning we spent a 1st rounder on a RT/G (which is fine, I guess) but more importantly we’d be switching Albert’s position (and there’s no indication that he should be moved from LT).
by Joel Thorman on Dec 31, 2008 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
Whoops
That 1st sentence is Chiefs n Chopper’s, meant to block quote.
by Joel Thorman on Dec 31, 2008 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
If we draft Oher
I think Albert would go to RT – spending a mid-first round pick on a franchise RT isn’t crazy.
But I think we’re drafting a QB
by PVChiefsfan on Dec 31, 2008 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
You're right about RT
But he’s performing well at LT, why fix it if it ain’t broke?
by Joel Thorman on Dec 31, 2008 11:01 AM CST up reply actions
The O-Line is broken
I know Albert handled LT this year, but I just think if you the opportunity to solidify another part of your line, you have to do it.
I understand moving Albert raises questions, but with him and Oher or Smith plus Waters, you’ve done a pretty good job of fixing your line. Not to mention Oher or Smith at LT and Albert at RT has the potential to lock down those positions for their careers.
by Chiefs n Chopper on Dec 31, 2008 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
Well worth it
An solid offensive line that has Pro Bowl tackles and can give the Qb 6 seconds to throw or open 5 yard gaps for the RBs is worth any price. Thats the kind of money that gets you to the Super Bowl.
I am sure Crabtree will be a fine WR in the NFL
but what exactly can he do to make the O Line better immediately or make the QB a more efficient player in all aspects of the position? I wont even ask how he could improve the defense. My point being, we may need another WR, but our needs are more pressing in the first two rounds.
We need a future defensive leader, his name is James Laurinaitis and he can be selected in round 1 of the upcoming Draft.
"But what do I know, I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"
Not to mention
WR, historically, is about the worst value in the 1st round. I know we nailed it with Bowe though.
There’s not many WRs I would pick in the 1st round.
by Joel Thorman on Dec 31, 2008 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
Bowe was #23…I’m more comfortable with picking a WR in the last third of the first round
by PVChiefsfan on Dec 31, 2008 10:55 AM CST up reply actions
Not the best example
but Calvin Johnson should be hugely valuable for the Lions in turning their things around. It’s amazing what he accomplished this year with the QB’s he had throwing him the ball.
Of course, they also drafted two other WR’s that are non-factors for them. It’s a difficult task, but if you can find a gem, it pays off handsomely. QB’s aren’t guaranteed by any means.
We need a QB
If we are talking offense. Thigpen has proven to be a capable backup and thats it in my opinion. And if you look at franchises that are successful and contend for multiple championships they pretty much all have franchise qb’s. I am very happy with Albert at LT and think we can address the O-line in the later rounds. Defensively i say we throw money at Terrell Suggs, but i doubt he leaves Baltimore, and Carlos Dansby with the Cardinals to help shore up the D immediately.
Agreed
I can see your points about Thigpen but I guess the argument against that is we should shore up the offensive line FIRST so that we can give our future franchise QB the best opportunity to succeed.
And re: Suggs and Dansby…yeah, one of those positions has to be filled via free agency.
by Joel Thorman on Dec 31, 2008 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
How many of these franchise qb's are first round picks?
How many more first round picks have flopped than have made “franchise qb” status?
There is about a 50% bust rate on 1st round QBs
I looked it up. From like 1995-2005.
by Joel Thorman on Dec 31, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
Thanks.
Can I ask what “bust rate” means? Do the other 50% stay with the same organization for 6 years? Make a pro bowl?
Honest curiosity here, I’m just not convinced that drafting a qb (with a top 5 pick) is a great idea.
By bust
I mean never panned out.
From 1985-2005 1st round picks averaged a 72.9 QB rating…the league average hovered around 77 during that time.
by Joel Thorman on Dec 31, 2008 11:21 AM CST up reply actions
A few more stats
-What’s the percentage of QB’s chosen #1 pick overall to lead a team to the SB?
That’s looking at ONE spot, not the entire round. The stat is 40%.
-Which team did the largest turnaround from the previous season (not including Miami going from 1-15 last year)?
The Colts were 3-13 (and got the #1 overall pick) and the following year went to 13-3. A difference of 10 wins and made it to the playoffs where they lost that first year.
-Who was the QB the Colts drafted during that offseason as the #1 pick?
Payton Manning. Given, it took him 7 years to win a SB.
-How many players remained on that roster between Payton’s first SB win and his last one?
I believe it was 3. A team that continued to renew and rebuild around their franchise QB.
Bill Parcell’s: "You are what your record says you are."
Thigpen WILL NOT be the Chiefs starting QB next year IMO. He can compete for the job and should be 2nd or 3rd string.
Colts
Have like 7 players on the team that weren’t drafted by the team. The others are draft picks and UDFAs.
by Joel Thorman on Dec 31, 2008 11:44 AM CST up reply actions
They are constantly rebuilding/renewing to better themselves
There’s talent out there…it’s just a matter of mgmt. evaluating what best fits their needs around their QB. It’s always around him when they evaluate players.
Bill Parcell’s: "You are what your record says you are."
Thigpen WILL NOT be the Chiefs starting QB next year IMO. He can compete for the job and should be 2nd or 3rd string.
How many franchise qb's have been other picks
Finding a franchise qb is no easy task, otherwise a lot of gm’s and coaches would still have their jobs. But trying to find a franchise guy in the later rounds is the same ol mentality that has plagued the chiefs for years (playing it safe). There is always risk with a high pick but the reward in my opinion far outweighs the risk. Granted with every Peyton Manning you get a Ryan Leaf or Akili Smith, but for every Tom Brady you get a hundred busts at qb.
by wjp1982 on Dec 31, 2008 11:13 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
looking above I'll say 50%?
We need a future defensive leader, his name is James Laurinaitis and he can be selected in round 1 of the upcoming Draft.
"But what do I know, I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"
Some Numbers
1985-2005 there were 43 1st round QBs.
15 of those 43 have a career passer rating better than the league avg for that time (77.3).
4 of those 43 have led the league in passer rating.
1 of those 43 (Forehead Manning) led the league in passer rating more than once.
11 of those 43 ended their career in less than 5 seasons.
12 of those 43 played in less than 30 games.
So, yeah, it’s a risk.
by Joel Thorman on Dec 31, 2008 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
I totally agree, you can't win if you don't play
You have to gamble something if you want to “hit” sometime. We need to hit, and you can argue all you want about the gamble that a first round QB is, but I like our chances if we drafted someone like Bradford. You can’t worry about past mistakes or what ifs. IMO.
I'm also curious of qb's who ran a "spread" offense in college
that have gone on to become franchise qb’s?
I know the spread is a relatively new offense, so the data would probably be a very small sample size. Just scares me bringing in a qb that hasn’t had a lot of exposure to pro style offenses.
Yep
It’s scaring a lot of people because it is newer. Historically, completion percentage and # of games started are the only two statistics that translate to the pro game.
by Joel Thorman on Dec 31, 2008 11:26 AM CST up reply actions
Some of us may be surprised in April
if we do draft a QB and he hasn’t played in the spread. There’s no guarantees we will run that offense next year.
We need a future defensive leader, his name is James Laurinaitis and he can be selected in round 1 of the upcoming Draft.
"But what do I know, I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"
What about Chyler Danpen?
Oh, our mistake.
by Official Arrowhead Pride Parade on Dec 31, 2008 12:11 PM CST reply actions
In case no one else has said this yet
Uh, Oher isn’t going top 3, and it would be unlikely he goes in the top half of the 1st round at this point.
You typically only see him associated with a top 5 pick by online speculators that haven’t followed the season or scouting services. He has a better chance at being the 4th OL taken than he does taken by the Chiefs, so lets leave him alone.
Similar to how Tebow gets thrown out sometimes as a top 5 pick. This is hype, not fact.
The OT that has a VERY real chance to go in the top 3 is Andre Smith. If you’ve seen him play, he is a true beast. If you haven’t…well you’ll have to wait until next year, b/c he’s been suspended for contact with an Agent by ’Bama.
My guess is we will get to see him next year…playing for the Rams in the Governor’s Cup.
Really? QB or OT?
I was thinking DE or MLB, but I suppose I have a defensive mind.
you aint the only one
We need a future defensive leader, his name is James Laurinaitis and he can be selected in round 1 of the upcoming Draft.
"But what do I know, I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"
If they go Defense
They’ll need to trade down a few slots, and no one seems to want to trade into the top 3 or 5 these days b/c of the massive salaries these guys get.
Its unfortunate that this year doesn’t have a #1 overall type DE, b/c he would have likely fallen to us.
When you’re picking this high, and you have as many holes as we do, you have to take the best player, PERIOD. Screw position, we don’t have a single area on the team that couldn’t use an upgrade. CB is the only position you wouldn’t think they’d take #1, but if they think Jenkins can be a Asomough or Bailey type, and he’s there at #3, I’d have no problem with them taking him…I really doubt thats the case…but…
I agree
I want to draft and develop a young, hungry aggressive defense. I’m okay with that and a caretaker vet QB, and maybe taking a Mark Sanchez or Rudy Carpenter in a later round to develop for the future.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I can't put my finger on it
But Stafford reminds me a bit of Joey Harrington. Who I thought would be really good in the NFL.
Bradford seems like such a long term project. I think he’s a bit small and will take awhile to become NFL ready. Not sure if I’m willing to wait that long.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think a majority of NFL scouts would take issue with...
Stafford being “definitely not as good as Sam Bradford.” I’m not high on either, but the quality of defenses between the Big 12 and SEC is worth mentioning.
Why not take Graham Harrell with a later pick instead? He and Bradford are both system QBs, but you won’t have to plunk down $30 million in guaranteed money with Harrell.
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