Breakdown of 'Battle' for the #2 Pick

by kcsno56 on Dec 23, 2008 10:31 AM CST Comment 13 comments

From the FanPosts. -Chris

Since I've seen some incorrect info out there about the Chiefs odds on getting the #2 pick, I thought I'd breakdown the scenarios for the Chiefs and Rams ending up in the second slot.

First off, the Chiefs and Rams are both assured of either the 2nd or 3rd postion, regardless of what happens this weekend.

For those that aren't aware, the ONLY two way tie, NFL tiebreaker for draft position is Strength of Schedule, defined simply as opponent's record. The team with the better opponents record has the harder SOS, and is deemed to be the 'better' team, and therefore would pick after the team with the worse SOS.

Obviously, for the tiebreaker to be in effect, both KC (@ CIN) and STL (@ ATL) will have to lose or win this weekend.

Going into week 17, after the Bears win last night, KC and STL are tied in SOS, both teams opposing records is 128-111-1.

On 810 yesterday Petro was trying to make the point that almost every game this weekend matters...in determining who would come out with the worse SOS, and while technically true, in actuallity, only 5 games other than KC's and STL's matter.

The reason for this is, several of the games involve teams in which KC or STL played both teams (ex. Den vs. SD or Ari vs. Sea). Or involve teams which KC and STL BOTH played once (ex. Buf vs NE).

After going through the schedule, 5 games will matter in determining the tiebreaker, they are:

Away	Home
OAK	TB
TEN	IND
NYG	MIN
CHI	HOU
WAS	SF

In bold are the teams KC needs to win in order to 'win' the tiebreaker.

Here's where it gets a touch complicated. Because CIN (KC's opp) would be one of the opponents that 'matter' in determining SOS and ATL (STL's opp) would not (b/c KC also played ATL) if we assume both KC and STL losses, 3 of the 5 in bold would need to win for a tie, and therefore a coinflip.

If somehow, KC and STL both win, then 3 of the 5 in bold winning would give KC the #2 pick, 2 of 5 would mean a tie and coinflip.

To take this further, and look at what Vegas' opinion is of these games:

TB is a 13 point favorite.

TEN is a 2 point favorite.

NYG @ MIN has no line at this point...I'd say MIN will be a slight favorite, only b/c they have something to play for and NYG's don't.

CHI @ HOU has no line yet, but CHI will be slight favorites.

SF is a 3 point favorite.

So essentially, TB is a big favorite, and the other 4 will likely all be under 3 point spreads. I'd say this favors a split of these 4 games, which slightly favors KC.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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Complicated

OK, so that was a little more complicated, and longer than I thought…here’s the bottomline:

On Sunday, root for TB, IND, NYG, CHI and SF.

by kcsno56 on Dec 23, 2008 10:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Good breakdown

"In the NFL, coaching has to make a difference when the games are close. The talent level across the league from team to team is too similar. Great head coaches do their best work in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line. Instead, we’ve seen Herm blow timeouts, put the game in the hands of the league’s worst defense, and most recently, run Larry Johnson behind Wade Smith and Adrian Jones as if they were Tim Grunhard and Will Shields in their prime.
Dr. Frankenstein is gone, but his monster is still roaming the sideline at Arrowhead Stadium." -C.E. Wendler, Warpaint Illustrated

by IISaiNtII on Dec 23, 2008 10:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Just curious

Do we want the 2nd or 3rd pick? Personally I think having the 3rd pick is better because I believe the Rams will be targeting a different position than we will and it would save us money assuming we aren’t able to trade out, but in terms of trade value we might want the second pick because teams might be more likely to trade up looking for the top OT, which is most likely what the Rams will be targeting.

by Chiefs n Chopper on Dec 23, 2008 10:38 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'd disagree

I think both teams need to take the best player available regardless of position. Its not out of the question that STL would pick a QB, and its not crazy to think we would take an OT.

Personally, if Bradford is gone, as I expect him to be, I hope we take Smith from Bama, the guy is a beast and we could plug him in at RT. Then address QB, DE and LB in rounds 2-4.

Of course, maybe the new GM will convince Clark to open the purse and go after Gross or Peppers of Carolina (I don’t think they can keep both), then we’d have some more options.

by kcsno56 on Dec 23, 2008 10:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It is not out of the question...

But it is unlikely that Rams would take a QB since Bulger got a big extension and their O-Line blows…

You dont use the #3 pick on a RT

No defensive players are worth being picked in the top 5…which sucks…

TRADE DOWN… if Bradford is gone, that is…

by woodman212 on Dec 23, 2008 5:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...trade down

…unless we can get a great pass rusher. But we’ll see. I think that the scouts at the combine always see something that’s missed during the college season and you never know what’ll happen.
I’m not saying the combine is the tell all/know all. Plenty of missed opportunities, but you never know how the draft picks might change because of it.
Lord knows many whiffed on Jerry Rice since they claimed he was slow in the 40 (I know, I know it’s a different position). I watched the 10 best draft picks on the NFL network and it described how so many teams missed him. It was interesting to see how he got drafted by the 49ers.

Bill Parcell’s: "You are what your record says you are."

The Chiefs need to be playoff contenders in 2009 for me to consider improvement. Clark wanted it in 2008...I'll give them an additional year.

Thigpen WILL NOT be the Chiefs starting QB next year IMO. He can compete for the job and should be happy to be 3rd string or 2nd.

by THE_TRUTH on Dec 24, 2008 8:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs