Breakdown of 'Battle' for the #2 Pick

From the FanPosts. -Chris

Since I've seen some incorrect info out there about the Chiefs odds on getting the #2 pick, I thought I'd breakdown the scenarios for the Chiefs and Rams ending up in the second slot.

First off, the Chiefs and Rams are both assured of either the 2nd or 3rd postion, regardless of what happens this weekend.

For those that aren't aware, the ONLY two way tie, NFL tiebreaker for draft position is Strength of Schedule, defined simply as opponent's record.  The team with the better opponents record has the harder SOS, and is deemed to be the 'better' team, and therefore would pick after the team with the worse SOS.

Obviously, for the tiebreaker to be in effect, both KC (@ CIN) and STL (@ ATL) will have to lose or win this weekend.

Going into week 17, after the Bears win last night, KC and STL are tied in SOS, both teams opposing records is 128-111-1.

On 810 yesterday Petro was trying to make the point that almost every game this weekend matters...in determining who would come out with the worse SOS, and while technically true, in actuallity, only 5 games other than KC's and STL's matter.

The reason for this is, several of the games involve teams in which KC or STL played both teams (ex. Den vs. SD or Ari vs. Sea).  Or involve teams which KC and STL BOTH played once (ex. Buf vs NE).

After going through the schedule, 5 games will matter in determining the tiebreaker, they are:

In bold are the teams KC needs to win in order to 'win' the tiebreaker. 

Here's where it gets a touch complicated.  Because CIN (KC's opp) would be one of the opponents that 'matter' in determining SOS and ATL (STL's opp) would not (b/c KC also played ATL) if we assume both KC and STL losses, 3 of the 5 in bold would need to win for a tie, and therefore a coinflip.

If somehow, KC and STL both win, then 3 of the 5 in bold winning would give KC the #2 pick, 2 of 5 would mean a tie and coinflip.

To take this further, and look at what Vegas' opinion is of these games:

TB is a 13 point favorite.

TEN is a 2 point favorite.

NYG @ MIN has no line at this point...I'd say MIN will be a slight favorite, only b/c they have something to play for and NYG's don't.

CHI @ HOU has no line yet, but CHI will be slight favorites.

SF is a 3 point favorite.

So essentially, TB is a big favorite, and the other 4 will likely all be under 3 point spreads.  I'd say this favors a split of these 4 games, which slightly favors KC.