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Herm vs. Current Coaches

I am in no way taking credit for this, I found this over on the PSD Chiefs forums from a guy whose point of view I often see eye-to-eye with.

h/t to RustShack over there for coming up with another great reason why Harmageddon shouldn't be an NFL headcoach.

Smart money says... Take the field and give the points. Herm Edwards is now 53-70 as a head coach in the NFL. That’s 43.1%. By losing to Dick Jauron today, Edwards dropped below Jauron (43.8%) in career winning percentage. In fact, of the sixteen head coaches who have at least 75 decisions, Edwards ranks …

… last – dead last.

I’ve recently analyzed just how bad the Chiefs are from an historical perspective. Anytime someone gets into uncharted waters, I’m going to measure the rip tides... 1-18, Yikes! and... Lions and Tigers and Chiefs. Oh my! In both cases, I’ve shown that the Chiefs are flirting with ineptness on an historical basis.

An obvious question is, “Why?” Well, of course nothing is working at present – except maybe some improvement in the offense. But, offense isn’t supposed to be where our leadership (Edwards, Cunningham) claims expertise. One would have to objectively say that when a car is missing an engine, tires and transmission, that a pristine interior (even if the Chiefs had one) isn’t going to get it from point A to point B.

Herm has to go. That’s a no-brainer. Carl has to go. That’s a no-brainer too. I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know. Unfortunately, ownership might be too preoccupied with soccer or money to care. Why anyone would purchase a ticket they don’t already have is way beyond my ability to comprehend.

Here are the sixteen existing head coaches in the NFL with 75 or more decisions shown in inverse order of success. Records include early games on Sunday.

Herm Edwards
KC 53-70 .431
Dick Jauron Buff 56-72 .438
Norv Turner SD 73-93-1 .440
Marvin Lewis Cincy 43-47-1 .478
Jack Del Rio Jacks 49-42 .538
John Gruden TB 94-77 .550
Tom Coughlin NYG 112-90 .554
Jeff Fisher Tenn 125-100 .555
John Fox Car 59-47 .557
Lovie Smith Chi 42-33 .560
Wade Phillips Dall 68-46 .596
Mike Holmgren Sea 159-107 .598
Andy Reid Phi 93-61-1 .603
Mike Shanahan Den 144-94 .605
Bill Belichick NE 134-85 .612
Tony Dungy Indy 133-69 .658

Needless to say, in order to fairly measure a coach’s failure rate, you need to compare him with those who have been around at least as long – sample size, his system, his players and all that. Even though that is certainly true, it’s interesting to take a look at the new coaches who began the season. Shown is their team’s record last year and their record at the beginning of the day today. All were 6-4.

Miami 1-15 Tony Sparano 6-4
Baltimore 5-11 John Harbaugh 6-4
Washington 9-7 Jim Zorn 6-4
Atlanta 4-12 Mike Smith 6-4

This tells you two things – 1) even rookie coaches can win in the NFL and 2) turnarounds can happen with coaching changes - hint, hint.
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This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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I saw that also

doesn’t offer much hope

"But what do I know, I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"

by Lanier63 on Nov 24, 2008 1:06 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, not really.

But what were those coaches records when they were where Harmageddon is now? That would be even more telling, and I may get the drive to do a comparison in a little while.

have you seen my baseball?

by IISaiNtII on Nov 24, 2008 1:20 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I looked up Bilichick

through 7 seasons he was around .46 or .48something.

by NJChiefsFan on Nov 24, 2008 1:39 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And don't you think

the Browns are smacking themselves? =)

by PVChiefsfan on Nov 24, 2008 1:43 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tony Dungy 1996-2003

was 76-52 .684

have you seen my baseball?

by IISaiNtII on Nov 24, 2008 1:43 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yup

Dungy’s been a consistently good coach since he got into the league. The biggest knock on him was that he couldn’t coach offense and it limited his team’s ceiling in the playoffs, but he recognized his weaknesses and kept the Colts’ offensive gameplan intact when he moved there.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Nov 24, 2008 1:46 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Whoops

.59 winning percentage

have you seen my baseball?

by IISaiNtII on Nov 24, 2008 1:47 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That stat would look a tad worse

if you took those Patriot years at the end out =)

by PVChiefsfan on Nov 24, 2008 2:01 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And Let's Not Forget

That Belichick won a Super Bowl in that 1991-2002 timespan. Herm hasn’t gotten close to winning a Super Bowl.

If Bill Belichick hadn’t won a Super Bowl and was going 1-10 in his eighth season as a head coach like Herm is, then nobody would be talking about how he “just needs a couple more seasons” to get his master plan on track. They’d be asking why his useless ass is still holding a clipboard on the sidelines.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Nov 24, 2008 2:11 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tom Coughlin 1995-2002

68-60 .531

Mike Holmgren
84-44 .656

Mike Shanahan
72-44 .620

have you seen my baseball?

by IISaiNtII on Nov 24, 2008 1:53 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good coaches go to the super bowl

Anyone notice a trend when it comes to coaching in super bowls

Herm Edwards KC 53-70 .431 – NO
Dick Jauron Buff 56-72 .438 – NO
Norv Turner SD 73-93-1 .440 – NO
Marvin Lewis Cincy 43-47-1 .478 – NO
Jack Del Rio Jacks 49-42 .538 – NO
John Gruden TB 94-77 .550 – YES (Winner)
Tom Coughlin NYG 112-90 .554 – YES (Winner)
Jeff Fisher Tenn 125-100 .555 – IYES (lost)
John Fox Car 59-47 .557 – YES (lost)
Lovie Smith Chi 42-33 .560 – YES (lost)
Wade Phillips Dall 68-46 .596 – NO
Mike Holmgren Sea 159-107 .598 – YES (won & lost)
Andy Reid Phi 93-61-1 .603 – YES
Mike Shanahan Den 144-94 .605 – YES (winner)
Bill Belichick NE 134-85 .612 – YES (won & lost)
Tony Dungy Indy 133-69 .658 – YES (winner)

So you apparently need a coach who wins more than he loses, over .500, but if he wins it is a toss up once you get there.

by tevans96 on Nov 24, 2008 3:52 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I Think It Was Billy Beane, GM Of The Oakland Athletics

Who once noted that talent usually shone over the course of the season but success in the playoffs was often more about luck because of the small sample size of game. Or as some other people on this site have noted…it’s pretty tough for a coach to win a Super Bowl when his team doesn’t win enough games to get into the playoffs consistently.

Here’s the thing that’s always kind of irritated me about the Herm and Carl apologists’ defenses of the team as well. They sit around and make up all of these excuses for why Herm and Carl keep losing games this year and how we just need to have a little patience for the rebuilding effort and it will all work out…but what makes them think that Herm and Carl will ever get to the playoffs? Herm’s never gotten close to winning a Super Bowl…he’s never even won his division. Carl hasn’t built a team capable of winning even one playoff game in over a decade and the closest he ever got to a Super Bowl was a team that got stomped in the AFC Championship Game in 1994. So why would anyone in their right mind think that just because they’re “rebuilding” that means we’ll someday be competing for a championship when it’s more likely that the best case scenario is that this team might win nine or 10 games a year and get to the second round of the playoffs. Nothing in Herm’s or Carl’s resumes has shown they’re capable of reaching (or winning in) the playoffs consistently. What’s more likely is that Peterson’s “plan” is giving us a rotten team this season so we might be able to have more mediocre teams in three or four seasons.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Nov 24, 2008 4:04 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Additional note

Going back to the 1990 season in the NFL there has only been one coach in all those years with a winning % below .500. That would be Bill Callahan of the Oakland Raiders, he coached all of 2 seasons. He lost the super bowl his first season then posted a 4-12 record the next and was gone with a .469 winning % for his career.

by tevans96 on Nov 24, 2008 4:10 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

After Which He Destroyed Nebraska Football :)

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Nov 24, 2008 4:15 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Herm should go back to just being a defensive coach.

Maybe he will resign or be asked to. This is sad to see how far this team has fallen. We have one of the most loyal fan bases in the league. When the fans collectively want a coach fired it usually happens in the league. If they want fans in the newly renovated stadium in two years it is time to make the move for a coach.

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Nov 24, 2008 6:45 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You Mean A Defensive Back Coach?

Because he was never a coordinator. He was in one of those “assistant head coach” type gigs which always seemed to me to be something of a scam for guys the head coach liked to pad their resume by insinuating that they were in charge without them actually having to learn how to do anything other than be a position coach.

I suspect that his lack of any experience as a coordinator is a large part of why Herm’s such a clueless head coach.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Nov 24, 2008 7:56 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes that is a defensive coach

He was actually the d-back/assistant head coach. Either way he has never been very good once given a lot of responsibility such as coordinator or head coach would have. Needs to go regardless

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Nov 24, 2008 8:11 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Chiefs aren't going to tip their hand anyway.

They don’t disclose the terms of deals, so they aren’t going to say if he is on the hot seat until he is gone.

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Nov 24, 2008 8:14 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I Remember The Comment He Made During Hard Knocks

Where he talked about how he’d never really wanted to be a head coach…he’d wanted to work with about 8 or 9 guys and build something from there. I suspect that Herm’s a victim of the Peter Principle with his highest level of competence being the DB coach.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Nov 24, 2008 8:25 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah I think he is better suited for that situation.

He was offered a high paying job. Who would say no to that? I think he won’t be fired but he may step down at the end of the year.

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Nov 24, 2008 8:28 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He Won't Step Down

He’s throwing his players under the bus for coaching staff failures in post-game. That’s not a sign of somebody who thinks he’s doing anything wrong.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Nov 24, 2008 8:34 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think even Herm knows it is time to go

This has got to be worse than even he imagined it would be. He said it would be rough, but this is a lot worse than rough.

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Nov 24, 2008 8:40 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you have the face of the team asking to be traded.

A respected hall of fame player who is like a son to The KING. You have to know your time is short.

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Nov 24, 2008 8:46 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Interesting take

Herm has got to be thinking “College Football” even just a little. I bet he regrets missing out on the UCLA job.

by TheQ on Nov 24, 2008 8:35 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe Washington or Clemson?

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Nov 24, 2008 9:31 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

College would be a better fit for him.

He would do well with the players I think. But after all of this losing, hard to tell. It has to be a Pac-10 school so he can get back closer to home. I think Washington.

by TheQ on Nov 24, 2008 9:38 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I Don't Think So

If he goes to college I think he’ll just end up another Greg Robinson. Herm hasn’t demonstrated that he’s able to manage a football game, period…that wouldn’t change just because he goes to the college level. Plenty of bad NFL coaches have gone on to be bad college football coaches.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Nov 24, 2008 10:10 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

True, but because he is coming from the NFL

he will get a chance, deserving or not. Does he even have any College coaching experience? There is a Nick Athan article about Herm possibly being considered for the San Diego State Aztec job, but he would have to leave the team early. I am sure that will not break your heart! Although highly unlikely.

by TheQ on Nov 24, 2008 10:23 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bill at K-State

is looking to build his coaching staff, there ya go Herm learn at a lower level, then maybe NFL coordinator.

by Eric Allen on Nov 24, 2008 10:25 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Give us Josh Freeman

and you can have Herm. Totally unfair trade leaning heavily in our direction, but that’s the deal.

by TheQ on Nov 24, 2008 10:32 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He would probably be a good recruiter.

That is about the only positive thing I can think of besides the obvious talent eval.

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Nov 24, 2008 10:36 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This raises another question

Can Jet’s Fans actually be right? They said we would rue the day that Herm came to Kansas City. I was wrong, Jet’s fans are right. They are smart, I am not that intelligent. They are good looking, I am not very attractive.

by TheQ on Nov 24, 2008 10:30 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They've Booed Every First Round Pick

So the Jets fans are definitely smart when it comes to recognizing failure in their team’s management. And they definitely thought Herm was a failure.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Nov 24, 2008 10:50 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Herm Edwards

Why would King Carly ever fire his broth’a the Herminator? Herm is performing exactly as planned and expected this season. Hide behind excuses such as youth and injuries, while accomplishing the overall goal of another ‘great draft’.

Herm will never be anything more than a blabbering, idiotic, motivational speaker barely capable of cashing in on his inheritcance of a talented team with both the Jets and the Chiefs. Pathetic. The man is a disgrace.

by thepriest on Nov 24, 2008 9:36 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you mean like a Matt Foley type???

Hello kids, I’m Herm Edwards and I live in a van DOWN BY THE RIVER!!!!

by fishbowl72 on Nov 24, 2008 10:58 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pretty Good

200 wins
126 losses
1 tie (tell Donanvan McNabb they have ties in regular season games)
.613 percentage

"But what do I know, I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"

by Lanier63 on Nov 25, 2008 10:25 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Marty

I know the playoff losses were hard to take, but it sure was great to have one of the best coaches of all time leading our team. The thing I think people fail to realize about Marty is that he was very very good at getting his teams to overachieve. When you go back and look at the years he took us to the playoff and look at the teams we lost to the other team almost always had more talent.

Marty was exceptionally good at taking the garbage that Peterson would give him and turn it into a winning team. The problem is once you make it to the playoffs you are going against other top quality coaches so if your team is less talented and the coaches are about even then the more talented team will win. The best seasons we ever had, in the playoffs, were when we had a washed up QB who is in the discussion of GOAT at his position.

Marty gets more with less, Edwards on the other hand gets less with more. See http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/06/rating-gameday-head-coaches.html for a reference.

And here http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/ you can sort all the coaches in history by clicking on "W-L %", Marty is up there with good company and you can see for yourself who Edwards is around (I don’t recognize half the names).

by tevans96 on Nov 25, 2008 11:53 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great Article On Advanced NFL Stats

I’ve bookmarked that page.

In his coach rankings I found it interesting that Jon Gruden and Dick Vermeil ranked so low and that Rich Kotite was close to the bottom, but looking over the writer’s methodology it appears to be pretty solid (at least from my layman’s perspective). Overall though I thought the ranking was pretty good, even though I think short careers skewed some of the coaches’ numbers a bit (which the author admitted in his article).

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Nov 25, 2008 12:08 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Correction

In his coach rankings I found it interesting that Jon Gruden and Dick Vermeil ranked so low and that Rich Kotite wasn’t closer to the bottom

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Nov 25, 2008 12:09 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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