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Let's Talk About Worth

As we all sit around, with the upcoming trade deadline upcoming, I would just like to congratulate the Chiefs for coming to their senses. This team, in what seems like the most hopeless stages of rebuild mode, cannot survive on seven draft picks a year.

I want to take just a real brief moment and set all of our expectations up properly with a breakdown of the value of each of these players that are supposedly on our trading block. Let's also breakdown exactly how likely it is that any of these players are on our roster by sundown Tuesday.

TE Tony Gonzalez

What he is: A flashback to old school, to the days where tight ends were actually put on the field to block and receive. There is no weakness in Tony G's game, as he is capable of blocking better than most tight ends in this league, is coming off a 99-catch season from one of the worst offenses in the league, and owns perhaps the most phenomenal tight end reception of the year against Denver. He is also a great leader, a perfect citizen, and Hall of Fame bound.

Where he is: The twilight of his career. However, Tony's numbers have hardly fallen off. Many speculate that as fit as he stays (Gonzalez's workouts leading up to games with other star TEs are legendary), he could still play competitively in this league for a few more years. His Pro Bowl days are sharply numbered, however, just on the basis of age.

What he can do: He can block, he is your security blanket across the middle, and he can lead. But perhaps most importantly, he can adjust to virtually any offense, having seen at least three radically different incarnations of the Chiefs offense during his tenure as a Chief. He will be a factor for your team by the end of the year if you pick him up now.

Worth: All things considered, it's either a 3rd alone or a 4th + 6th package. Before you get your blood boiling, loyal Chiefs fans, consider that Jason Taylor, about the same age, just got traded for a 2nd. DE is valued far more in the NFL than TE by a long shot, and Taylor was traded in the more relaxed atmosphere of the offseason, rather than up against the trade deadline, when teams are hesitant to pull the trigger on any deal. Most all of the teams in the market for Tony do not need him, so their offers won't be the 2nd or 3rd that Gonzalez would normally warrant. However, rumors suggest half a dozen teams are interested, which could play an equalizing factor here.

RB Larry Johnson

What he is: The perfect antihero, the guy whose morals in no way line up with yours but no man worth his salt would ever turn down being on his side in the heat of battle. However, he is an albatross when unhappy, which happens any time he does not get the ball early and often in games. Because he is such a lousy blocker, he is of no use on third down, which demands run plays on first and second down; nobody likes to admit it in Kansas City, but LJ is a big reason why our offense is so predictable. That said, however, with good blocking he is a Top 5 RB in this league. With elite blocking, no RB in the league can touch him.

Where he is: He is still capable of giving a new team a handful of solid years. LJ's spirit may sag during weak years such as this one, but his dedication to staying fit never does. I've been surprised every year at how physically fit he looks at training camp. It's unlikely that he can carry an offense by himself anymore, but he can still produce in an even-handed offense.

What he can do: He can run, and get the hard yards. Not a terribly impressive blocker and while he gets along for the most part with teammates, he has never been any kind of emotional leader. Given the hole, LJ can make the most of it between the tackles -- matter of fact, he may be best inheriting a Jerome Bettis-type role on a talented offense.

Worth: At this point, he's worth a 4th. There's no way any team in the NFL will want to pay the price that Carl Peterson is asking at the latest trading stage in the season. There aren't a lot of teams that are willing to cough up a first-day pick for a guy who doesn't block at a position that most teams value little. It's possible that the Chiefs could land a good deal this coming offseason for LJ, when teams are more relaxed and everybody's thinking ambitiously. But at this point, it's near impossible the Chiefs get anything better than a 4th for LJ. If anybody offered a 3rd (which nobody will), Peterson should leap on it--but I'm probably guessing he won't.

QB Damon Huard

What he is: An unflappable veteran in most circumstances that include more than 1.2 seconds of pass protection. He can make most of the safe passes, and all of the smart passes, but is occasionally stifled by tricky coverages and will make a braindead mistake. He is a savvy veteran who can bide time and take a hit, and he can provide the minimal leadership abilities needed to keep an offense afloat long enough.

Where he is: At the end. In his mid-thirties and clearly losing a step, any team picking him up now understands that he is on his last legs and will likely not suit up in 2009 unless lured by a stupid contract.

What he can do: He can man your ship just long enough for whomever you really want quarterbacking to return. He's done it his entire career, and he plays consistently every single week -- you know precisely what you're getting out of him whenever you suit him up: 150-200 yards passing, maybe a TD or two, maybe an INT.

Worth: If somebody truly wants to pry him away from the Chiefs, a conditional 5th that could conflate to a 4th if he gets them to the playoffs. If the Chiefs just want to unload him, they might just take a 6th. The rumor is that the Patriots are in the search for a reliable game-manager to fill the gap between now and Tom Brady's return on a golden cloud as angels sound their bugles. The Patriots are loaded with talent everywhere, feature great pass protection, but need a sure, unflappable hand to at least not screw things up. Huard may be what the doctor ordered, but he won't be commanding much.

CB Patrick Surtain

What he is: Washed up.

Where he is: At the very end of his career.

What he can do: Provide an opponent's wide receivers 10 yards of cushion.

Worth: If the Chiefs managed to gain any sort of compensation for Surtain, at all, at any point, I'd be surprised. Take the conditional 7th and thank the team for taking his cap hit.

1 recs | Comment 26 comments | Digg!

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pretty solid post

I’m new here, but why have I yet to notice your contribution?

by AngryJesus on Oct 13, 2008 10:38 PM CDT   0 recs

I come and go.

Thanks for reading.

by Direckshun on Oct 14, 2008 1:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

would not trade him for anyone

no way do not trade him he is your 2nd best player and franchise hall of fame player

[url=http://www.CTSportsPicks.com]Free Sports Picks Daily[/url]

CT

by ctsportspicks on Oct 13, 2008 11:58 PM CDT   0 recs

LJ

i just hope we get rid of LJ and surtain. LJ is just beat up and he’s useless to us

by fujirio on Oct 14, 2008 12:20 AM CDT   0 recs

no love for LJ

i still think he’s one of the best backs in the league. he just happens to be running behind one of the worst lines in the league-I don’t think anybody can argue against that. this sunday brodie is going to get crunched by Ten.‘s d-line and they’ll focus on stopping LJ and will succeed.

he is by no means washed up though. i don’t think there is any other back int the league that would make much more out of the situation that LJ is in right now.
the biggest thing against him is his blocking (which is not a small matter). so what-he whines every once in a while-who cares, there are a lot of players in the league with much more destructive personalities than johnson.

by KCWolfff on Oct 14, 2008 12:55 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

LJ's not washed up......

…he’s just an ass. We should have never re-signed him, he has not contributed anything solid to this team since. Kolby Smith did just as well as LJ last year and he was running behind the same crappy line. Instead of taking the money we would have paid LJ and signing 3-4 players that could help with the rebuilding effort, we wasted money on a RB who’s biggest year was a direct result of having two future HOF players blocking for him. All the field vision and patience that he showed while subbing for Priest seems to be gone. He’s a liability in the passing game and he has made it obvious on more that one occasion that he doesn’t really want to be in KC. I know that we’re probaly stuck with him but I wish that we would just cut our losses and give LJ what he really wants, a ticket out of KC.

by ill_spec on Oct 14, 2008 8:47 AM CDT   0 recs

LJ isn't washed up.

Even behind a young and inexperienced (and, thus, not very good) O-Line, he went into the weekend as the leading rusher in the AFC. That’s saying something.

by JacinB on Oct 14, 2008 9:52 AM CDT   0 recs

Agreed

He’s not washed up. He seems to have recovered well from the overload in 2006. But he’s also not worth that contract to us.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Oct 14, 2008 10:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

LJ Hate

Where does it come from? As a pure runner, he is maybe the best in the league(he’s better than LT, and AP has to work on some things). The ONLY reason why we have won games in the last two seasons is because we had him in the backfield. He goes down last year and we don’t win another game. He touches the ball 30 times against Denver, we win. Funny how that works. Maybe he should be touching the ball more than 10 times a game, and has a reason to complain?

And the reason that LJ isn’t in in passing downs isn’t because he’s a terrible blocker. LT stays in in passing situations and he’s only slightly better(his biggest criticism if you ask a Charger’s fan). It’s because our o-line is so bad that we can’t get by with a decent blocker, we need an exceptional one.

Teams go in to games game-planning specifically against him. If you take him off of our team then they have no reason to change their gameplan, and don’t leave themselves open anywhere. I know you guys think that Kolby Smith is as good as LJ, but he’s not. He was a good value in the 5th round, but he’s not a game changer the way LJ is.

by JayrodT on Oct 14, 2008 10:27 AM CDT   0 recs

Why the LJ love?

I would say Kolby is better balanced than LJ, not necessarily a better back. You’re right, as far as running the ball is concerned, LJ is numero uno. But it takes more than running to be a great back. His blocking is suspect, as you admit, as is his receiving. On a designed screen he catches well enough. But he doesn’t pay attention when he is the emergency relief valve. If his name isn’t called as the primary ball carrier, he doesn’t care about the play. That’s why his blocking and receiving aren’t the best; if he doesn’t get the ball he doesn’t care.

The reason I don’t like LJ (I’m not speaking for anybody else) is that he is paid more than any other back in league history and is only excellent at one facet of the game. He doesn’t deserve the amount we pay him. I’d say he had a right to expect a pay raise for his level of production, but we WAY overpaid him. Throw in the fact that he is a negative emotional influence on the team and I feel like we are getting ripped off big.

by Chiefs4Life on Oct 14, 2008 11:26 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed

And I don’t think it’s his “blocking” that’s suspect per se, more his desire to block.

Bill James wrote a piece in his last abstract about players, personalities and defense, and noted how there seemed to be a general tendency of really self-absorbed stars to be great at hitting but less proficient at defense. He hypothesized that it was because many of those players didn’t see defense as something that benefited them personally, that it didn’t get them as much attention as being a good hitter did, so they spent less time on it because they saw busting their butt for things that didn’t help them personally as a sucker’s game. I think that James was overgeneralizing a bit in regards to baseball (Barry Bonds, after all, was an excellent defender until his knees went; Ty Cobb was a jerk, but a great fielder) but I think it’s a very applicable statement to guys like Larry Johnson in football with regards to secondary tasks. Running backs generally aren’t paid for their blocking skills, they’re paid to run the ball…so LJ’s take appears to be screw blocking when he doesn’t feel like doing it. He’s not paid to keep Damon Huard upright, so Huard can deal with the hassle.

That’s largely why I think Dick Vermeil disliked Larry Johnson so much. And I can’t say as I’ve really been much of a fan. I think he’s kind of a spoiled brat who needs to be told by management to shut the hell up (and to get fined) when he starts whining, and who never should have been given that contract.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Oct 14, 2008 5:57 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't even think Huard is worth a 4th

More like a 6th/7th.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 14, 2008 11:26 AM CDT   0 recs

Nice !!!

I especially like the dispassionate analysis of each listed player’s “worth”. I think you’re spot on there.

by HankerChief on Oct 14, 2008 1:46 PM CDT   0 recs

Yeah Herm has

Been spot on for KC.

by Eric Allen on Oct 14, 2008 9:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Why do you even respond to my garbage?

If it is such filthy nastiness?

Herm’s the Man

by AngryJesus on Oct 14, 2008 9:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I haven't smoked in weeks

But I do drink heavily.

Can’t you hold off on the negativity until the offseason?

by AngryJesus on Oct 14, 2008 9:59 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Not really trying to

Be negative, just my honest opinion of the situation.

by Eric Allen on Oct 14, 2008 10:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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